ISSN 0798 1015

Vol. 40 (Number 10) Year 2019. Page 14

New challenges and priorities of the labor market development in Uzbekistan

Nuevos desafíos y prioridades del desarrollo del mercado laboral en Uzbekistán

ABDURAKHMANOV, Kalandar Khodzhaevich 1 & ZOKIROVA, Nodira Kalandarovna 2

Received: 19/12/2018 • Approved: 03/03/2019 • Published 31/03/2019

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Methodology

3. Results

4. Conclusions

Acknowledgements

Bibliographic references

1. Introduction

Along with positive shifts in macroeconomic parameters the current stage of Uzbekistan’s development is characterized by serious problems in the labor sphere, including inefficient employment and increasing structural unemployment, low quality of workers’ qualification and workplaces, as well as low level of labor efficiency, high income inequality, insufficient effect of human capital investment, significant asymmetry of social and labor relations, and deepening differentiation of regional labor markets in the country.

In this context, the republic faces the need to preserve, increase and rationally use the existing labor potential. The process of innovative employment formation as a global trend began in Uzbekistan, but it is fragmented, enclave and spontaneous, it needs institutionalization and special incentive mechanisms. While maintaining the current situation, in the future the employment sphere will restrain sustainable socio-economic development on an innovative basis. It is impossible without this to ensure the further development of Uzbekistan and its full integration into the system of international economic relations where the highly skilled, creatively-minded mobile workforce interested in production results and provided with sustainable employment is a decisive prerequisite for the country's competitiveness.

The ongoing process of the labor market formation requires new innovative approaches to the sphere of social and labor relations, regarding the specifics of the economy of Uzbekistan. This refers to significant rates of hidden unemployment, precarious employment, growing employment in the informal sector of the economy, low labor mobility, etc., which requires a comprehensive analysis of quantitative and qualitative values of the phenomena under consideration.

The employment development strategy in the innovation direction requires rethinking of the postulates of the neoclassical paradigm, analysis and systematization of new phenomena at the theoretical and methodological levels and presents the employment management system with new “challenges” that need a qualitative change in its traditional areas.

The relevance of the research topic is also determined by the fact that the country is increasingly facing a thorny issue of developing essentially new employment regulation policy that are adequate to the country’s Action strategy for the Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2017-2021 (Mirziyoyev, 2017), which is the strategic program document designed to consider modern, the most acute trends in the development of global markets and forecasts of the international environment.

Against this background, today, rapid qualitatively new structural and market transformations are taking place in the economy of Uzbekistan, the priorities of the country’s socio-economic development are radically rethought; the creative process includes new and effective drivers of economic growth. Older, outdated institutions and instruments of economic regulation give way to new innovative and effective forms and methods of influencing the economy.

In the world, special attention is paid to studying the development of the labor market and employment. In this context, scientific research in such areas as increasing the occupational mobility of the workforce, increasing the efficiency of organizational structures at various levels of employment, forming targeted government orders for creating jobs taking with regard to the needs of the labor market and socio-demographic groups of the population assume greater importance.

Effective development of the labor market remains one of the urgent problems, since employment of the population is important for improving the quality of life not only in the world, but also in Uzbekistan. It is worth noting that in the conditions when the global unemployment rate is 5.8%, more than 1.4 billion workers are employed in low-status jobs, most of which are in developing countries. The number of insufficiently sheltered employees is increasing annually by 11 million people. This situation, along with serious problems, leads to a restriction of their ability to receive a steady income and a fairly safe socially protected workplace (ILO, 2017).

The implementation of a strategically-designed labor market policy requires further research in this area, which still lags behind the demands of practice. At the same time, such specific problems as the selection of optimal forms and methods of employment regulation, the ratio of private and public initiatives, centralization and decentralization in this area are of particular importance. The issue of practical regulation of the labor market is also demanding serious thought, taking into account recent changes in the general economic situation in the country in order to develop recommendations for the implementation of employment policy.

It would be unreasonable to ignore the accumulated experience of foreign countries, especially because with the development of Uzbekistan’s innovative and digital economy entire spectrum of problems similar to those of Western countries will expand. In this regard, the authors have put forward issues of studying, summarizing and analyzing the world experience (taking into account the country’s historical, social, political, and cultural traditions) and developed a number of proposals for effective cooperation between governmental and non- governmental employment services in the system of the Ministry of Employment and Labor Relations of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

In short, the complexity and multidimensionality of all the questions posed make it necessary to study the strategies for the development of the labor market and the employment policy in Uzbekistan.

1.1. Literature review

Researches are conducted in the leading research centers and universities of the world, including the International Labor Office (ILO), Economic Council of Sweden (IVA, Stockholm), Italian Statistic Institute (ISTAT), Harvard University (USA), University of Oxford (United Kingdom), University of Paris (France), Nagoya University (Japan), at the Centre for Labor Market Studies (Russian Federation), at Moscow State University (Russian Federation ), in the Republican Research Center for Employment and Occupational Safety under the Ministry of Employment and Labor Relations (Uzbekistan), at the “Labor Economics and Sociology” department of the Tashkent State Economic University and the Tashkent branch of the G.V. Plekhanov Russian Economic University to define the concept of employment structure, to study the employment quality, increase in efficiency and improvement of its structure (GITR, 2014)

However, with all the variety of theoretical and practical approaches, the problem of employment at the modern stage of economic development was not studied properly; the gnoseological potential of labor resources and employment of the population with regard to national peculiarities and traditions of the Uzbek people was understudied. It is limited to traditional approaches to the analysis of employment in modern conditions of innovative development. There is no terminological definiteness of the category of innovative employment due to the lack of translated foreign literature and, as a result, it is impossible to fully disclose the institutional foundations of employment of the population.

There have been lots of discussions around this issue, since the term “labor market” was firmly established in academic circles and practical activities more than a quarter of a century ago. At first glance, the period is sufficient for theoretical understanding of what is behind this concept.

A wide variety of issues are debated: what is the object of sale and purchase in the labor market - labor, labor force or labor service? which category is broader - “labor market”, “labor resource market”, “labor services market” or “labor force market”? and which category is narrower? which category is fundamental; should they be distinguished? etc.

Moreover, a discrepancy in judgments is observed in the characteristics of each of the categories, which exacerbates the differences of opinion in determining the relationship between them. Hence, it is necessary to unify the assessment of economic concepts, an unambiguous interpretation of the terms, the essence and content of a number of categories directly related to the theory of the labor market. Literary sources on the topic of the labor market contain all the detailed steps taken by the scholars in this direction in recent years. Let us dwell on the most significant scientific problems that are essential for the theory of the issue. First of all, it is necessary to clearly distinguish between the categories “labor force” and “labor” in the study of the labor market.

The basis for fundamental theoretical studies of the labor market is provided by such famous scholars as A. Smith (1993), D. Ricardo (1961), J. Keynes (2016), A. Marshall (1984), W. Eucken (1995), A. Pigou (1985), M. Friedman (1977), F. Hayek (2016) and others.

A significant contribution in the field of development of theoretical provisions and conclusions in the labor market formation and functioning was made by the well-known economists: R. Boyer (1999), M. Castells (2000), R. Gordon (2016), R. Ehrenberg and R. Smith (2012), J. Kornai (2011), R. Layard (1993), M. Piore (1970), J. Rubery and F. Wilkinson (1994), G. Standing (1999), J. Stiglitz (2000), J. Sachs (1995), P.A. Samuelson and W.D. Nordhaus (2009)., A. Toffler (2010), and others.

At the same time, the theory of the labor market is not fully disclosed and still lacks uniform understanding, which is explained by the complexity of the existing dependencies, the multiplicity of variables, the relations between which are nonlinear, as a rule. There are also subjective reasons – scholars working out this issue have different views on its individual facets. In this situation, it should be recognized that most of the published works are undoubtedly controversial and even contradictory, but this is a clear manifestation of the "unsettled" ideas and the ongoing scientific search.

According to British scholars J. Rubery and F. Wilkinson (1994), the interaction of an employee and an employer in the labor market should be built on the principle of optimization by balancing the expectations of the employee himself and the opportunities of satisfying them by the organization.

“Every market has buyers and sellers, and the labor market is no exception… the labor market is one of three markets in which firms must successfully operate if they are to survive; the other two are the capital market and the product market. The labor and capital markets are the major ones in which firms’ inputs are purchased... Study of the labor market begins and ends with an analysis of the demand for and supply of labor” (Ehrenberg and Smith, 2012)

From the viewpoint of foreign scholars, the labor market of Uzbekistan has certain features. S. Commander and other experts consider that the available high level of over-employment typical of firms seeking to retain jobs, in contrast to standard firms seeking to maximize profits is a distinctive feature of the labor market (Commander et al., 1995; Commander and Tolstopyatenko, 1997) R. Layard and A. Richter (1995) note that since the 1990s a high degree of labor market flexibility has begun to manifest itself.

A theoretical understanding of the issues of the modern labor market formation and functioning was developed by L.I. Abalkin (2002), V.N. Bobkov, B.D. Breev, S.A. Kartashov, Yu.P. Kokin, L.A. Kostin, I.N.Myslyaeva and V.I. Plaksya (2000); S.A. Borjas, G.J. (2013), V.S. Bulanov and N.A. Volgin (2010), N.G. Vishnevskaya (2006), I.E. Zaslavsky (2000), S.G. Mikhneva (2001), Yu.G. Odegov and G.G. Rudenko (2011), Odegov Yu.G., Galiakhmetov R.A., Abdurakhmanov K.H., Galiakhmetova M.R. (2017), V.A. Pavlenkov (2004), T.O. Razumova and S.Yu. Roshchin (2001), V.D. Rakoti (2013), G.A. Reznik (1998), A.I. Rofe (2010), L.S. Chizhova (2011),  

Special mention should be made of works devoted to the consideration of the theoretical aspects of the labor market and employment sector. Labor migration has ever been neither so outsized nor significant as it is now. These new properties have recently turned it into an object of close attention. Moreover, the importance of the labor market problems has not only a national nature, but also a global one. It has acquired an international dimension now, occupying an important role in shaping and developing the global labor market (Burdzhalov, 2011, Meteliov, 2006, Kashepov et al., 2008).

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest of scholars in the study of the demographic factor in the socio-economic development of Uzbekistan. Certain aspects of the labor market development in close connection with demographic processes were highlighted in the works of academician of the Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan R.A. Ubaidullaeva and O.B. Ata-Mirzaev (2016), H. Abulkosimov (2009), K. Abdurakhmanov and N.K. Zokirova (2013), D.A. Artykova (2010), Z.R. Khudayberdiev (2008),.D.N. Rakhimova (2005), G.M. Rakhimova and A.S. Vakhidov (2015).

At the same time, economics has not been fully armed with scientific knowledge of a truly effective theory of the labor market yet. This significantly narrows the range of the main objectives of socio-economic policy, and in practical terms leads to ignoring the objective laws of the labor market development and, ultimately, to its insufficient maturity.

The scientific papers of economists partly reflect the scientific-methodological and practical aspects of the labor market development in the world economy and, in particular, the aspects of the labor market development in the Central Asian states are little studied. In our opinion, insufficient studies of the structural elements of the labor market and employment and their functional interrelationship, development features and trends, as well as methods for improving their integrated assessment in the current context of globalization, require deep scientific and methodological research.

The analysis has demonstrated the readiness to abandon a number of previously established stereotypes and outlined new approaches and methodological principles for future research. Thus, taking into account the huge amount of economic literature and approaches, the systematization carried out above enabled to choose some opinions of foreign scholars, which revealed the diversity of the labor market as an economic category and a system of social and labor relations.

Considering that this study does not allow for a complete analysis of the works by foreign scholars, only partial analysis enabled to prove the need to take into account these ideas, to expand the defining component of the economic category of “labor market” according to the research conditions. In our opinion, the labor market is a complex socio-economic and socio-labor system that requires the interaction of its subjects and objects (employers, employees, the state represented by the Ministry of Employment and Labor Relations of the Republic of Uzbekistan, trade unions of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Republican Research Center for Employment and Occupational Safety, the Agency for the Development of Public-Private Partnership) for the purpose of ensuring a balance of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of labor supply and demand.

At the same time, it should be noted that in terms of innovative development Uzbekistan’s labor market structure is a kind of hierarchy that includes several levels of management: the national labor market (meso-, macro-, and micro-levels), interregional and regional labor markets. Moreover, there is a close relationship between the labor markets of different levels, and the international labor market can be considered as the external environment for the national labor market.

Today, owing to the recently adopted governmental decisions, for the first time in many years of market reforms, a action strategy has been formed for the development of the Republic of Uzbekistan, identifying the key objectives for the economic renewal of the republic. They include the modernization of the economy and its digitalization, declared as one of the main strategic objectives of socio-economic policy. Its implementation involves overcoming the raw material producing nature of the country and improving the competitiveness of the economy based on the introduction of the advanced innovative technologies. This will inevitably require restructuring of the functioning of the economy as a whole, improvement in the quality of the workforce and an increase in the efficiency of the national labor market functioning.

The global experience of modernization shows that it is possible to achieve these goals only with a general increase in the labor activity of the population. In other words, the policy of accelerated modernization should be carried out and considered in conjunction with such an important and pressing socio-economic problem as employment of the population.

According to the goals and objectives of the study, we will consider the labor market in Uzbekistan.

This research will allow identifying the main trends and problems of the labor market development in Uzbekistan. To do this, we will analyze and systematize information on the state of the labor market in modern conditions and reveal its features and development problems.

Figure 1 illustrates the behavior pattern of the labor market key indicators in the Republic of Uzbekistan in recent years.

As the data in Figure 1 show, for the period of 2014-2017 there was an increase in the number of the unemployed and at the same time an increase in the number of the employed. This situation is explained by the consequences of, firstly, an increase in the birth rate, an increase in graduates of educational institutions, exerting an impact on the labor market, which was reflected in a decrease in the general level of employees’ income, migration processes, devaluation of social benefits and revenues due to inflation. There was observed a positive trend in the structure of the economically active population. Owing to all these factors and indicators, the unemployment rate has increased, which in 2017 amounted to 5.8% compared with 5.1% in 2014. Thus, the number of the unemployed in the structure of the economically active population remains quite significant.

Figure 1
The dynamics of the structure of the key indicators
of the labor market in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Source: Statistics digest, 2018

The conducted analysis shows that in Uzbekistan the majority of people who lose their jobs leave it of their own accord (22.6%), employees entering the labor market for the first time are graduates of secondary schools (14.6%), secondary special and higher educational institutions (20.9%) and professional colleges (8.8%). Thus, there is mainly friction unemployment (68.5%) in Uzbekistan. Cyclical unemployment is very low (1.1%), and structural unemployment accounts for 30.4%

The presented situation proves the lack of consistency between economic entities (households, government, firms) about the use and distribution of labor resources, which necessitates the development of mechanisms for coordinating the interests of these entities.

Against this background, the authors worked out a methodology for selecting industries when creating new jobs due to the interdependence of industrial sectors. Such flexible sectors as food industry, chemical industry, wood processing industry, production of modern building materials, multi-functional farm businesses were proposed as priority sectors in Uzbekistan. Within the study, the number of permanent and related jobs created in 2017 in the sectors of Uzbekistan’s economy was determined on the basis of the calculated coefficients.

Thus, in 2017, 101.6 thousand permanent jobs were created in industry, which made it possible to provide 20.8 thousand related jobs in other sectors of the economy. In addition, taking into account contingency coefficients and the cost of a single workplace, the efficiency ratios of existing and newly created jobs were revealed by types of economic activity. As to the available jobs, workplace efficiency is higher in transport and communications, trade and food service industry, and the newly created jobs have proved to be efficient in agriculture and forestry, in the sphere of trade and public catering. In this paper, the elasticity (flexibility) of the labor market has been characterized as the ability to structurally adapt, that is, the possibility of eliminating the imbalance between the scale (supply-demand ratio) and financial-monetary (balanced and real wages) indicators of employment.

Based on these indicators the paper presents structural changes in employment by analyzing the functional state and elasticity of the labor market in the country (Table 1).

 Table 1
Calculated indicators for labor
market functioning in Uzbekistan

Source: Statistics digest, 2017.

As can be seen from the table, wages grow at a higher rate than labor productivity. However, the impact of wages on labor productivity is low. This is explained by its very low level in the early years of independence. The increase in this ratio subsequently contributed to the fact that in 2005-2017 the coefficient of demand elasticity decreased from 1.710 to 0.792. Our analysis showed that in the republic the share of wages in GDP is very low (33%), and meanwhile in the cost of enterprises this indicator ranges from 5 to 10%. The current system of income taxation does not motivate employers to increase wages and, conversely, it stimulates the economy aimed at the production of raw materials. Proceeding from this, it was proposed to bring the share of wages in GDP to the level of developed countries (65-70%).

This will be possible with simultaneous tax reforms. This implies the increase in taxation rates for raw materials with a simultaneous decrease in the income tax rates, corporate income tax and value added tax. There are several methods for calculating the level of natural unemployment. For example, the Economic Planning Agency of Japan applies its historical average (EPAJ, 2000), while other researchers use all factors to the fullest extent (Kamada and Masuda, 2001). Another option accounts for the unemployment rate in the conditions of a stable inflation rate (CBO Memorandum, 1995). Based on the study of the above methods, an opinion was expressed that in the conditions of our republic it is reasonable to accept the natural rate of unemployment rather at the level of 5% as opposed to 10%.

Thus, in the context of the innovation economy development in the republic, in addition to the state employment agencies as organizational structures of the labor market, various specialized and universal commercial employment agencies also occupy an important place in the labor market: Republican Research Center for Employment and Occupational Safety, training centers and recruitment agencies. Besides being engaged in labor mediation, non-governmental employment agencies have a number of lines of their business activities that can be classified by the type of labor mediation, by distribution of functions in the labor market, by recruitment criteria, by the degree of specialization and stages, by the scope of activities, as well as qualification and industry peculiarities.

An appropriate model has been developed to increase the efficiency of employment in the internal labor market, based on a social market model for performance improvement. The purpose of the model development was to increase the employment efficiency based on ensuring a balance of socio-economic interests of the parties to the labor process (Figure 2).

Figure 2
A model for improving the employment
efficiency in Uzbekistan’s labor market

The starting points for model development are:

the labor market, which is considered simultaneously as an environment for the use of labor resources and as a sphere of reflection of socio-economic relations,

the labor market is a set of internal labor markets that provide labor resources for the needs of economic entities – employers for the unemployed population, who form the demand for manpower;

- only in the labor market, which has certain boundaries, determined by the ratio of jobs, available labor resources of the organization and payment for their labor, a real balance of the socio-economic interests of the parties to the labor process is provided.

To summarize the above based on the conducted analysis, the authors formulate and present several specific proposals for improving the regulation of the labor market in the Republic of Uzbekistan.

Firstly, it is necessary to form a modern innovative toolkit for monitoring the labor market and employment. Such tools were used actively in the planned economy, including the balance of labor resources. Now similar tools exist in a very truncated form. We believe that the system of state regulation of the labor market and employment there must include tools that give answers to the questions about the way of labor distribution across the regions and by types of economic activity, the available manpower and employees’ qualifications.

Secondly, to increase the level of employment in the republic, it is necessary to take into account the program of development strategies of Uzbekistan for 2017-2021, regional peculiarities of demographic changes in the socio-economic development of regions and the development of "General Employment" programs; while ensuring a balance between planning the training of qualified personnel and the needs of economic sectors in personnel, it is necessary to take into account not only the domestic demand, but also the external demand for labor resources; it is advisable to provide continuous monitoring of the conditions created for the development of home-based work, family businesses and crafts.

Thirdly, the further development of the small business structure should be the most important direction of the labor market policy. The selective nature of support is fundamental in this direction. Those potential entrepreneurs and micro-enterprises that are focused on manufacturing products that require the use of high-quality labor should become primarily the object of these programs.

It seems that such an approach aimed at developing entrepreneurship and preventing the degradation of the total labor force is consistent with the strategic priorities of the modernization of the country’s economy

Fourth, the institution of self-employment should be developed, as shown by the experience of the Andijan region of Uzbekistan in implementing the “Every family is an entrepreneur” program. For this purpose, it is necessary to improve the mechanisms for providing incentives for starting a business. It is also advisable to encourage the private initiatives of the unemployed in creation of “their own business”; develop non-conventional forms of employment, such as in conditions of precarization (unstable employment); create conditions for the promotion of vocational, sectoral and territorial mobility of labor resources.

Fifth, in the near future, due to the intensive development of the economy and innovative technologies, the unemployment problems will increase. In this regard, it is necessary to find new solutions to the problem of unemployment; the state will be forced to solve the problem of unemployment due to the development of technological progress. Perhaps this work will be carried out with the help of social protection systems, for example, a global system for monitoring basic income or identifying new methods for determining citizens’ sources of income.

Underdeveloped countries will look for radically new approaches so that the lag behind the rest of the world does not become critical. In the end, they will concentrate on the domestic markets as their main sources of income.

Sixth, in the context of strategic development of Uzbekistan, the employment policy, in our opinion, should be aimed at ensuring socially acceptable unemployment rate with active support for the manpower transfer across sectors of the economy, territories and types of employment in the interests of structural shifts and with the maximum possible social support for the unemployed. The task of compliance of professional training of highly qualified specialists with modern requirements becomes urgent. At the same time, educational programs should include not only primary training, but also permanent and continuous professional development of employees in the system of postgraduate education.

Thus, it is possible to assert with sufficient confidence that there are enormous opportunities for expanding general employment in the Republic of Uzbekistan, therefore the labor market regulation mechanism should be constantly improved in conjunction with the country’s action strategy for future development and the system of basic macro-, micro- and meso-economic indicators used in the practice of public administration.

In view of the above, formation of a holistic concept of innovative employment, development of a methodology for its assessment, analysis of the process of its institutionalization, study of the global trends, identification of restrictions and prerequisites for its formation in the republic as a whole and in the regions and development of new approaches to employment management acquire the theoretical and practical significance for the labor market problem in Uzbekistan under modern strategizing conditions.

Acknowledgements

This study was carried out in the framework of the priority field of science and technology development in the Republic of Uzbekistan on the theme “The spiritual and moral development of a democratic and law-governed society, the formation of an innovative economy”. In addition, the appropriate inter-office memoranda were submitted to the Ministry of Employment and Labor Relations and a workshop was held. The authors made a report on this topic at the International Conference “The Future of the World of Work: Initiatives to ensure decent employment on the eve of the 100th anniversary of the International Labor Organization” which was held on December 14, 2018 in Tashkent.

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1. Academician of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Tashkent Branch of G.V. Plekhanov Russian Economic University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Contact e-mail: kalandar.abdurakhmanov1@gmail.com

2. Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of the Tashkent Branch of G.V. Plekhanov Russian Economic University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan